Over the next two sitting weeks a series of meetings will be held over the issue, starting with the Nationals on Sunday – which promises to be more of a Seinfeldian “airing of grievances” – and then the Liberals, joint party room and cabinet.
Morrison doesn’t need to land all of the Nationals’ support, and legislation for the target is not required, but a majority is preferred.
These meetings are a Kabuki dance. They’re as much about managing the internal politics of the Coalition as they are about whether or when Australia will make the pledge that needs to be made at Glasgow.
Scott Morrison with the lump of coal he took into Parliament in 2017.Credit:Andrew Meares
What’s also worth noting is how Morrison, the arch-pragmatist, has arrived at this point.
In 2009, during debate on Kevin Rudd’s Carbon Price Reduction Scheme legislation, he declared support for an Emissions Trading Scheme but not that ETS, while giving himself cover (and borrowing from Margaret Thatcher) on the need to “give the planet the benefit of the doubt”.
He opposed, along party lines, Julia Gillard’s 2011 emissions trading scheme. He backed Tony Abbott’s repeal of the scheme in 2014.
And, famously, on February 8, 2017 he brought a lump of coal into the chamber and waved it around wantonly at the opposition and taunted Bill Shorten’s opposition.
“This is coal, don’t be afraid, don’t be scared, it won’t hurt you … it’s coal … It’s coal that has ensured for over 100 years that Australia has enjoyed an energy competitive advantage that has delivered property to Australian businesses and has ensured Australian industry has been able to remain competitive in the global market”.
It was a YouTube moment that has been used against the PM again and again.
What’s been forgotten is what he went on to say, and that matters too because it speaks to how this Prime Minister practices politics.
“Affordable energy is what Australian businesses need to remain competitive … on this side of the House you will not find a fear of coal any more than you find a fear of wind … you won’t find a fear of sun, you won’t find a fear of wave energy, you won’t find a fear of any of these sources of energy but what you will find is a passion for the jobs of Australians who work for businesses that depend on energy security.”
So the door was open to the coming transformation – as long as, to use the more recent phrase, it was driven by “technology, not taxes”.
As recently as the 2019 election Morrison was happy to warn that Labor’s more ambitious climate targets would “end the weekend”.
But on Friday, Morrison said on reaching net zero “the challenge is not about the if and the when, the challenge is about the how”.
What’s changed?
The politics of Australia’s never-ending climate wars has been mugged by the moment. As a Liberal MP put it to me several months ago, “at the heart of the Morrison government is a focus group” and the reality is Australians want greater action to mitigate the changing climate.
The election of Joe Biden, the ambition of Boris Johnson, the EU’s plans for carbon tariffs on imports, major trading partners like Japan shifting away from coal – this has all played a part.
The Business Council, which shamelessly attacked Labor’s policy in 2019, is now on board. So too is NewsCorp, which has campaigned against climate action for years, and big miners such as BHP and Fortescue.
Liberal moderates – who back climate action, and should really be labelled realists – realised months ago the net zero pledge would likely be made.
And Morrison the pragmatist has slowly shepherded the Coalition towards the net zero end goal. The PM deserves credit for keeping his party (mostly) together over climate policy.
But whether voters give him the credit he hopes for – after leading from the back, rather than the front – is another matter.
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